A look at 13 songs nominated for Record or Song of the Year

I’ll tackle Record of the Year and Song of the Year together, as there is significant overlap this year. The difference? Record of the Year goes to the artist and producer(s), while Song of the Year goes to the songwriter(s) only.

There are 10 nominees in each category and seven songs are nominated in both categories this year. I’ll start with the seven nominated in both and then go on to the other three in each category.  So here they are:

Nominated for both Record of the Year and Song of the Year (7)

1. “Drivers License,” Olivia Rodrigo, songwriters: Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo – If you believe oddsmakers, Rodrigo could sweep the major categories. I don’t think Grammy voters are all too comfortable giving her the works though. Rodrigo’s smash hit about a young girl pining for an ex-boyfriend seems more likely to in in the songwriters category.

Chance of winning: She could win both. I think she will win Song of the Year but not Record of the Year.

Video #1: Rodrigo from Austin City Limits
Video #2: Postmodern Jukebox cover (ft Piper Jones)

2. “Leave The Door Open,” Silk Sonic, songwriters: Brandon Anderson, Christopher Brody Brown, Dernst Emile II and Bruno Mars – This would be a coming home party, as Silk Sonic debuted “Leave The Door Open” on last year’s Grammy telecast.  They’ll be opening this year’s show. Both Bruno Mars and Anderson.Paak are well liked by Grammy voters and their song is a strong one that’s a throwback to the Philly Soul sound of the 1970s.

Chance of winning: As I mentioned, they are well-liked by Grammy voters and Mars has already won Record of the Year with a throwback type song (“24K Magic”). Oddsmakers have it as the second or third favorite in both categories. The performance outweighs the song and I think it will win Record of the Year but fall short for Song of the Year.

Video #1: Silk Sonic at last year’s Grammys
Video #2: 4th Impact cover

3. “Happier Than Ever,” Billie Eilish, songwriters: Billie Eilish O’Connell and Finneas O’Connell – The start of this song is minimalist and slow even by Billie Eilish standards. “Happier Than Ever” also builds into an anger by the song’s end. It’s very well written and performed. It only reached #11 on the Billboard chart, but it’s tough for the sixth single from any album to do much better.

Chance of winning: It’s one of the top three contenders in each category. I think it has a better chance in the Song of the Year category. Will voters like her angsty song better than Rodrigo’s? We’ll see.  

Video #1: Eilish on SNL
Video #2: ASTN cover

4. “Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” Lil Nas X, songwriters: Denzel Baptiste, David Biral, Omer Fedi, Montero Hill and Roy Lenzo – “Montero” checks a lot of boxes. It went to number one, and its gay themes angered some folks on the right. It also helped establish Lil Nas X as more than just a one hit wonder. The title refers to the singer’s birth name (Montero Hill).

Chance of winning: I don’t expect a win in either category, but it’s a strong contender. Kind of like a baseball team that wins 85 games, maybe enough to make the playoffs but a longshot to win it all. Grammy voters might want to reward him after dismissing him in the past. Given the subject matter, it’s probably more likely to win Song of the Year, where “statement songs” tend to be more recognized.

Video #1: Lil Nas X on SNL
Video #2: Rain Paris rock cover

5. Kiss Me More, Doja Cat featuring SZA, songwriters: Roget Chahayed, Amala Zandile Dlamini, Lukasz Gottwald, Carter Lang, Gerard A. Powell II, Solana Rowe and David Sprecher – “Kiss Me More” reached #3 in the United States and hit #1 in a few countries. Doja Cat’s collaboration with SZA was my #2 song of 2021. It’s a very well-produced and performed track.

Chance of winning: It would get my vote for Record of the Year, but it probably will not win. I think it has no chance at Song of the Year. One of the songwriters (Gottwald) is far too controversial and some voters will simply not vote for him. He did not produce this track so they might feel safe voting for it in the Record category.

Video #1: Doja Cat & SZA at the Billboard Music Awards
Video #2: Holly Humberstone cover

6. “Peaches,” Justin Bieber, songwriters: Louis Bell, Justin Bieber, Giveon Dezmann Evans, Bernard Harvey, Felisha “Fury” King, Matthew Sean Leon, Luis Manuel Martinez Jr., Aaron Simmonds, Ashton Simmonds, Andrew Wotman and Keavan Yazdani – Why? Seriously, why? There have to be at least 50 better Justin Bieber songs. “Peaches” did debut at #1 and performed well commercially, but the annoying repetitive lyrics will make this one less likely to endure. Well, at least it’s better than “Yummy.”

Chance of winning: None.

Video #1: Acoustic cover by Bieber from NPR Music
Video #2: Zhavia cover

7. Right On Time, Brandi Carlile, songwriters: Brandi Carlile, Dave Cobb, Phil Hanseroth and Tim Hanseroth – It’s an excellent song and Carlile sings the hell out of it. It’s one of those songs that you hear on awards show but not so much on radio or anywhere else. That says more about where the industry is. “Right On Time” might have been a huge success in the Lilith Fair era of the late 1990s.

Chance of winning: It’s a longshot, but Grammy voters love Carlile and sometimes like to vote for songs that don’t get the attention they think it deserved. It has a better chance at Record of the Year and not just because Carlile is double nominated in the Song category.

Video #1: Official video
Video #2: Carlile on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon

Nominated for Record of the Year but not Song of the Year (3)

1a. “I Get A Kick Out Of You,” Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga – Well, they weren’t going to give it a Song of the Year nomination, as Cole Porter has already had his share of acclaim for this and other songs. There is some magic when these two legends come together, and at least at recording time, Bennett still could croon with the best of them.

Chance of winning: Clearly one of the top three, but who knows which direction Grammy voters will go with Bennett? One odds site lists it as the third favorite; another has it as co-favorite with “Drivers License.” My guess is that Bennett gets more support in the Album of the Year category than he and Lady Gaga will get here. As stated above, if Rodrigo does not win, I think Silk Sonic takes this Grammy.

Video: Official video

2a. “Freedom,” Jon Batiste – CBS would be thrilled to see Batiste win this. The network has been touting his 11 nominations. They would cross-promote his role on as Stephen Colbert’s bandleader to no end and he is performing on he Grammy telecast. He’s a talented performer and it’s the most unique song in the category, with pop, R&B, jazz and choir elements.

Chance of winning: Where is his record label? “Freedom” is nominated for Record of the Year and the song doesn’t even have its own Wikipedia entry? Sorry CBS, but I expect Batiste to have a great night…..in the non-televised categories.

Video #1: Official video
Video #2: Live Performance video

3a. I Still Have Faith In You, Abba – This is Abba’s first Grammy nomination, so think of it as a lifetime achievement nomination. It’s a slow ballad that builds to a climax and it’s performed well. Abba has done well with uptempo songs and ballads, but I think fans may have been looking for something a bit more danceable.

Chance of winning: I’ an Abba fan. I guess it’s possible that voters feel guilty about never having given them a single nomination. However, after about 40 years of anticipation, it’s telling that their first single failed to go to #1 in any country.

Video: Official video

Nominated for Song of the Year but not Record of the Year (3)

1b. Fight For You, (H.E.R.), songwriters: Dernst Emile II, H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas – Emile is double nominated. He is also a co-writer of “Leave The Door Open.” “Fight For You” is from the critically acclaimed movie Judas and the Black Messiah and it won for Best Original Song at last year’s Oscars. It’s heavily influenced by 1960s R&B.

Chance of winning: Let’s not forget that a H.E.R. song won this award a year ago. That may have been more about the message of “I Can’t Breathe,” which certainly struck a chord last year. I don’t expect a repeat. Judas and the Black Messiah is a great film but doesn’t have the same widespread recognition as the simple phrase, “I can’t breathe.” Also, the song won at last year’s Oscars not this year’s. Many voters may have simply forgotten about it.

Video: H.E.R. performance at the Oscars

2b. Bad Habits, (Ed Sheeran), songwriters: Fred Gibson, Johnny McDaid and Ed Sheeran – Ed Sheeran has certainly established himself as a first-rate singer/songwriter. Problem is, it’s not even as good as its subsequent single, “Shivers,” and there are even better tracks on that album.

Chance of winning: Fair or unfair, we expect a lot from Sheeran. “Bad Habits” is a decent song but nowhere near his best. Oh, and that video—eeeek!!

Video #1: Official video
Video #2: Madilyn Bailey cover

3b. A Beautiful Noise, (Alicia Keys & Brandi Carlile), songwriters: Ruby Amanfu, Brandi Carlile, Brandy Clark, Alicia Keys, Hillary Lindsey, Lori McKenna, Linda Perry and Hailey Whitters – “A Beautiful Noise” was written to inspire people to vote in 2020. The songwriting team is exclusively women.  The pairing of Keys and Carlile works, I mean, why wouldn’t it? The song did not chart.

Chance of winning: Message songs sometimes win. Carlile is a Grammy favorite and Keys hosted the Grammys a couple of times. This one will not win though. Not enough people know it or will have remembered it.

Video #1: Keys & Carlile on The Ellen Show
Video #2: Universal Gospel Choir cover

Grammy Album of the Year Nominees

Albums. The concept has changed over the years and unless you’re buying vinyl, you’re probably downloading a set of singles. There are 10 nominees for Grammy Album of the Year and let’s take a look, alphabetically by artist.

Here is my take on the Album of the Year category:

1. We Are, Jon Batiste – New Orleans in the house. Jon Batiste is up for 11 Grammys! Three are for the Soul soundtrack, where he collaborated with Trent Reznor. The other eight come from this album. Batiste is multitalented and plays many instruments on the album. As Stephen Colbert’s bandleader, he is well known. There’s a lot of flavor on We Are, from R&B to jazz and other genres mixed in.

Chance of winning: Slim, despite the 11 nominations. There are just not enough well-known songs.

Album Cut #1: “Freedom” (video)
Album Cut #2: “Tell The Truth” (Austin City Limits)

2. Love For Sale, Tony Bennett and Lady Gaga – The star power here can’t be matched and the pairing works well. Bennett is 95 and has signs of Alzheimer’s so this album is their swan song. The album (and title) are a tribute to Cole Porter.

Chance of winning: This is the most competitive of the major categories, with six strong candidates and no clear favorite. This one is obviously a sentimental favorite and you know there will be voters who want to give Bennett that one last major Grammy.

Album Cut #1: “I Get A Kick Out Of You” (video)
Album Cut #2: “I’ve Got You Under My Skin” (video)

3. Justice (Triple Chucks Deluxe), Justin Bieber – Well, it was better than his previous album, Changes, but still a bit uneven. Bieber’s fourth album, Purpose, was a classic and he has yet to match it. There are high points (“Holy”) and low points (“Peaches”) on Justice

Chance of winning: One gambling site lists Bieber and a co-longshot along with Batiste. That’s shocking given Bieber’s popularity, but not surprising. It’s far from his best album.

Album Cut #1: “Holy” (lyrics, featuring Chance the Rapper)
Album Cut #2: “Wish You Would” (lyrics, featuring Quavo)

4. Planet Her, Doja Cat – Planet Her is Doja Cat’s third album and notable for the big hit single “Kiss Me More” that featured SZA. There are a lot of collaborations and a few more minor hits. Doja Cat does well mixing pop, R&B and hip-hop.

Chance of winning: Oddsmakers don’t like its chances, but they may be underestimating it. I’d say it’s unlikely but possible, and Doja Cat may have more success in other categories, particularly with “Kiss Me More.”

Album Cut #1: “Need To Know” (video)
Album Cut #2: “You Right” (video, with The Weeknd)

5. Happier Than Ever, Billie Eilish – Billie Eilish’s first album did pretty well at the Grammys and not surprisingly, her follow-up album has seven nominations. The title track is up for Song and Record of the Year. There were seven singles, none of which hit #1. “Therefore I Am,” came closest, peaking at #2. Eilish and her producer/songwriter brother Finneas did well to maintain her sound without sounding too repetitive.

Chance of winning: I would call this album the co-favorite in a very crowded field with at least as good a chance as any of the nominated albums.

Album Cut #1: “Therefore I Am” (lyrics)
Album Cut #2: “My Future” (video)

6. Back Of Her Mind, H.E.R. – This is actually the debut album for Gabriella Wilson (H.E.R.). The first two releases were EPs. While critics adore H.E.R., she’s a bit in between radio formats, too R&B for pop stations and not quite right for R&B stations that lean more toward hip-hop. The lead single, “Slide,” was released in September 2019, almost two years before the release of the album!

Chance of winning: Critics and Grammy voters love H.E.R. and this album has a decent outside shot of winning, even without massive hit singles.

Album Cut #1: “Slide” (audio featuring YG)
Album Cut #2: “Come Through” (video, featuring Chris Brown)

7. Montero, Lil Nas X – The hits are there—“Montero (Call Me By Your Name)” and “Industry Baby” went to #1 and “That’s What I Want” was a top 10 hit. Lil Nas X showed that he was no fluke after the unexpected success of the massive hit “Old Town Road.” It might not be everyone’s cup of tea but it was certainly popular.

Chance of winning: Another with a reasonable outside shot. If he can dominate the rap vote over Kanye West, that could be enough.

Album Cut #1: “Montero (Call Me By Your Name)” (lyrics)
Album Cut #2: “That’s What I Want” (video)

8. Sour, Olivia Rodrigo – First came “Drivers License,” which added anticipation to the release of Sour. It did not disappoint and broke the Spotify record for biggest opening week by a female artist.  A string of teenage romance angst singles followed. It clearly struck a chord and a Grammy win would really get her Sour tour that begins Tuesday off to a good start.

Chance of winning: The co-favorite along with Billie Eilish. Eilish is more familiar but Rodrigo is a newcomer. Flip a coin. If Eilish and Rodrigo split the vote evenly, it’s up for grabs for anyone to steal.

Album Cut #1: “Good 4 U” (video)
Album Cut #2: “Traitor” (lyrics)

9. Evermore, Taylor Swift – Oh, Tay-Tay. I don’t know much beyond the single, “Willow,” which is a pleasant song, a bit bland. Other singles went to alternative and country radio. “No Body, No Crime” went to #2 on the country charts. “Coney Island” was top 20 on rock/alternative radio. Critics seemed to mostly like the album.

Chance of winning: Well, Grammy voters have been good to her and she beat out Dua Lipa in this category a year ago (I’m still bitter). She probably has the best chance if Eilish and Rodrigo don’t get the votes.

Album Cut #1: “Coney Island” (lyric video)
Album Cut #2: “No Body, No Crime” (lyric video, featuring Haim)

10. Donda, Kanye West – Okay, who put Kanye and Tay-Tay in the same category? Donda, West’s 10^th album, has a bit of everything, including gospel. The album did better than the singles, but the album did VERY well and set first-day records on both Apple Music and Spotify. “Hurricane” did reach the top 10 on the pop charts.

Chance of winning: I still think Kanye’s infamous comments many years ago helped Taylor Swift get some of those early Grammys out of sympathy. Swift has done better since, but the Grammy count going in to this year is Kanye West 22, Taylor Swift 11. If either wins in this category, it will be Swift but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Album Cut #1: “Hurricane” (video)
Album Cut #2: “Jail” (video, ft. Jay_Z)

2022 Grammy Best New Artist Nominees

The Grammys are finally here—but not in Los Angeles and later than usual. Due to a COVID surge, the ceremony was postponed, but the usual venue is tricky to book. The Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Kings all have a “Grammy road trip” built into their schedules. Those road trips are REALLY hard to reschedule once NBA and NHL seasons are underway. So, on to Vegas!

Here is my take on the Best New Artist category:

1. Arooj Aftab – In past years, singers like Aftab would be ineligible. Her most recent album is her fourth and she is 37 years old. Born in Saudi Arabia, Arooj Aftab’s Pakistani parents relocated to Pakistan when she was 10. Through YouTube, she released some viral videos that made her well known in Pakistan in the early 2000s! She moved to Brooklyn in 2005 and has been based there and has some experience with writing movie scores. While her work has been noticed in small circles in the United States, she got bigger exposure when Barack Obama included her song “Mohabbat” on his summer 2021 playlist. Since then, her album Vulture Prince has gotten some acclaim, including a Best Album nod from a Dutch newspaper.

Her chances: She is clearly quite talented and the Grammys have been shamed into increasing diversity, which is a good thing. She really has been around quite a while, however. A win here would feel like when Ichiro Suzuki was named Rookie of the Year. Technically, he was a rookie, but the guy was a Japanese baseball legend.

Music Sample #1: “Mohabbat” (album version)
Music Sample #2: Live performance of “Mohabbat”

2. Jimmie Allen – Here’s a another not-so-young nominee—he is 36. His story is more of an overnight success. Jimmie Allen is a black country singer from Delaware. He has already won a CMA for Best New Artist. Allen auditioned for American Idol in 2010 but was cut in the audition rounds. His first single, “Best Shot,” topped the country airplay chart in November 2018, and yes, by old rules he would have been ineligible in this category (*cough* Whitney Houston *cough*). He has quickly become a reality show star, having appeared as a contestant on Dancing With The Stars and as a guest mentor on American Idol. His most recent big hit seems to have been “Freedom Was A Highway” with Brad Paisley.

His chances: Well, he already has one Best New Artist nod and reality TV has increased his visibility. I think the award either goes to a more well-known artist or to a diversity (genre or artist) pick. The last big surprise was when Esperanza Spalding won it, when voters recognized her talent in chamber music.

Music Sample #1: “Best Shot”
Music Sample #2: “Freedom Was A Highway” (with Brad Paisley)

3. Baby Keem – Here’s a young star, just 21 years old and he has experience as a songwriter and a producer. He is Kendrick Lamar’s cousin and collaborated with him in songwriting and production of the Black Panther soundtrack. His first single, “Orange Soda,” peaked at #98 on the pop chart and he’s probably better known for “Family Ties,” with Lamar. He has worked with high profile artists including Travis Scott and Kanye West. Baby Keem also has some TV appearances, including on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.

His chances: Hip-hop is popular and he is certainly known by Grammy members in that genre.  I don’t think he has enough big hits, however, and I think his best chance is if other nominees split the vote and the rap contingent sneaks him through.

Music sample #1: “Orange Soda” (official video)
Music sample #2: “Family Ties” with Kendrick Lamar

4. Finneas – Okay the guy has eight Grammys already! For those who don’t know, Finneas is Billie Eilish’s brother, and he is an outstanding songwriter and producer. He also has an Oscar and a Golden Globe for the Bond theme, “No Time To Die.” While primarily a songwriter and producer, he has released some singles, dating back to 2016. Maybe he is just beginning to be noticed as a singer, but Finneas really does not belong in a New Artist category by any rules.

His chances: He’s well known so don’t rule it out. However I can’t see voters agreeing that he is a New Artist in any sense of the word. His sister has already won a Best New Artist Grammy, so it would be history-making, but I just don’t see it.

Music Sample #1: “I Lost A Friend” (official video)
Music Sample #2: “What They’ll Say About Us” (official video)

5. Glass Animals – Here is another stretch in what they’re calling a New Artist. They did make it big recently but they had some significant indie singles as early as 2016. Their biggest album to date is Dreamland, released in August 2020. Their big breakthrough was the single, “Heat Waves,” which made it to number one earlier this year after a slow one-year climb up the charts. The song is currently in its fourth week at number one. Glass Animals formed in Oxford in 2010 and are clearly at the top of their popularity to date. They are led by Dave Bayley, the primary singer, songwriter and producer for the group. He is 32 and was born in Massachusetts before his family relocated to the U.K.

The group’s chances: The song is number one right now so that’s hard to discount. If there is a backlash over one of the more obvious choices, Glass Animals could sneak in. I’d be surprised, however.

Music Sample #1: “Heat Waves” (official video)  
Music Sample #2: “Heat Waves” (televised performance)

6. Japanese Breakfast – This is an indie group fronted by Korean-American singer Michelle Zauner. They’re also up for a Best Alternative Album Grammy for Jubilee, the group’s third album. Zauner is 32, was born in Seoul but grew up in Eugene, Oregon. The first single from Jubilee was “Be Sweet,” which sounds a lot like a 1980s synth-pop track.

The group’s chances: At least one oddsmaker lists Japanese Breakfast as one of the two biggest longshots along with Arooj Aftab. They just don’t have the hits, not even on the alt charts. The sound is pleasant but I suspect many voters are unfamiliar, as was I.

Music Sample #1: “Be Sweet” (official video)  
Music Sample #2: “Paprika” (televised performance)

7. The Kid Laroi – Okay, now here is an artist who has a legitimate shot. He’s an Australian singer/rapper/songwriter who notably was friends with the late rapper Juice Wrld. He had two huge hits in the United States in 2021. The first, “Without You” reached the top 10 and got a lot of airplay. There’s a solo version and a remix that features Miley Cyrus. The second was “Stay,” a collaboration with Justin Bieber that spent seven weeks at #1. His name is Charlton Howard and he’s just 18 years old and fits in this category in spite of some releases in 2020.

His chances – Oddsmaker list him as the second favorite and I agree with that. His pop success may give him a bit of an edge, as he is well known by both pop and rap voters. If the favorite in this category does not win, then The Kid Laroi could take the trophy.

Music Sample #1: “Without You” (solo version)
Music Sample #2: “Stay” (official video with Justin Bieber)

8. Arlo Parks – She is a 21-year-old English singer/songwriter whose first language was French. Her ancestors comes from Nigeria, Chad and France. She has been more successful in the U.K. than in the U.S., and her most recent album, Collapsed in Sunbeams, is nominated for a Brit Award for Album of the Year. Her biggest hit to date in America has been for “Hurt” which reached #13 on the adult alternative chart in 2020. Again, why not a nomination in this category last year? She has opened for Harry Styles and Billie Eilish and is well-liked by critics.

Her chances: One gambling site lists her as the third favorite behind The Kid Laroi and ahead of Glass Animals! Did I mention she is well-liked by critics?   Despite a low name recognition, it’s conceivable she wins if the two favorites split the pop vote.

Music Sample #1: “Hurt”
Music Sample #2: “Softly” (televised performance)

9. Olivia Rodrigo – “Drivers License” went to #1 and inspired an SNL sketch before most people know who she was. She eventually released an album and successful singles followed. Olivia Rodrigo is 19 years old and by any standards, had a huge year in 2021. She was in High School Musical: The Series, so she had a following in a niche audience. That following was enough to help “Drivers License” scale the charts quickly to make Rodrigo a household name. “Deja Vu,” “Good 4 U,” “Traitor,” and “Brutal” all followed the initial success, and “Good 4 U” gave her a second #1 hit.

Her chances: Well, let’s see, what would cause her NOT to win? A backlash, perhaps? Maybe a minor controversy about songwriter credits. Rodrigo agreed to give co-writer credits after the fact to writers of songs that inspired parts of her songs. I think she will win.

Music Sample #1: “Drivers License” (official video)
Music Sample #2: “Deja Vu” (official video)

10. Saweetie – Diamonte Harper is a 28-year-old rapper who uses the stage name “Saweetie.” Her debut single, “Icy Girl” was released in 2018, again, something that used to make artists ineligible to be considered New Artists. She is yet to have released an album, so despite that technicality, it makes some sense to give her consideration. Her biggest pop hit to date is “Best Friend” with Doja Cat, which reached #14. She has quite a few top 10 hits on the R&B and rhythmic charts though, notably “My Type” in 2019.

Her chances: Many voters are already familiar so she has an outside shot. I think what goes against her may be that she is best known for collaborations. I also haven’t decided whether being around for a while helps an artist’s chances or hurts them.

Music Sample #1: “My Type” (official video)
Music Sample #2: “Best Friend” with Doja Cat (official video)